Na osnovu sadašnjih poznatih gubitaka na održavanju, očekuje se da će se gubici održavanja polietilenske fabrike u avgustu značajno smanjiti u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. S obzirom na troškovna dobit, održavanje i implementaciju novih proizvodnih kapaciteta, očekuje se da će proizvodnja polietilena od avgusta do decembra 2024. godine dostići 11,92 miliona tona, uz rast od 0,34% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine.
Od sadašnjih performansi raznih nižih industrija, jesenje rezervne narudžbe u sjevernom regionu su postepeno pokrenute, sa 30% -50% velikih fabrika koje rade, a druge male i srednje fabrike primaju raštrkane narudžbe. Since the beginning of this year's Spring Festival, holiday arrangements have shown strong scalability, with more abundant and diverse holiday arrangements. Za potrošače to znači češće i fleksibilniji izbor za putovanja, dok za kompanije znači više vršnih poslovnih sezona i duže prozore usluga. Razdoblje od avgusta do početka septembra pokriva više čvorova potrošnje poput druge polovine ljetnog odmora, početak školske sezone, sredinom jesenjačkog festivala i praznika nacionalnih dana. Nepovratna potražnja često se povećava u određenoj mjeri, ali iz perspektive 2023. godine, ukupni nizvodno potražnja industrije plastičnih proizvoda je slaba.
From the comparison of changes in apparent consumption of polyethylene in China, the cumulative apparent consumption of polyethylene from January to June 2024 was 19.6766 million tons, an increase of 3.04% year-on-year, and the apparent consumption of polyethylene showed a positive growth . According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to July this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 16.179 million and 16.31 million respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 4.4% year-on-year. Looking at the comparative data over the years, the apparent consumption of polyethylene in the second half of the year is generally better than that in the first half. For example, in some e-commerce promotion activities, sales of home appliances, home furnishings and other products often increase significantly. Based on e-commerce festivals and residents' consumption habits, the consumption level in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half.
The growth of apparent consumption is mainly due to the increase in capacity expansion and export contraction in the second half of the year. At the same time, there are continuous macroeconomic favorable policies, which have boosted the real estate, infrastructure, daily necessities and other fields to varying degrees, providing financial activity and confidence support for consumption in the second half of the year. According to statistics, from January to June 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2.3596 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Nedavno su mnoge regije uvele preferencijalne politike za kontinuirano pojačavanje potrošnje rasuti i ubrzavaju oporavak potrošnje u ključnim područjima. Pored toga, kako bi se kultivirali i ojačali nove bodove za rast u potrošnji i promoviraju stabilan rast potrošnje, nacionalni razvojni i reformski komisija, zajedno s relevantnim odjelima i jedinicama, proučavali i formulirali "mjere za stvaranje novih potrošnji i uzgoj novog rasta Points in Consumption", which will provide assistance for further recovery of the consumer market.
Overall, the polyethylene market is expected to face a clear increase in supply and expansion of consumption in the second half of the year. Međutim, tržište je oprezno u pogledu budućih izgleda, a kompanije uglavnom usvajaju strategije preprodaje i brze prodaje, a trgovinom se također nagnu na model brzog i brzog modela. Under the pressure of capacity expansion, market concepts may not undergo significant changes, and proactive destocking will remain the main trend in the market.
Vrijeme objave: 19.08.2024